Aug 09, 2010

What to Keep an Eye on Now...

One of the most challenging aspects of mobile today is the speed with which it is evolving.  To help you stay afloat in this year of continuing  mobile development tsunami, here are four areas I believe are crucial to integrate in your strategic planning for mobile:

• Location as “given” Location awareness has been a hot mobile topic for the past 18 months.  Unfortunately, the heat has exceeded the light.  Will all mobiles be location-aware within a few years?  Likely.  Will 100% of consumers be willing to share their location 100% of the time?  Highly unlikely.  Having said that, services like driving directions are so popular that the volume of uptake and demand will sweep away the details.  Start thinking about location as a “given” and plan to include it as an option within every mobile interaction.

• Permanent fragmentation For one brief, shining moment, it looked as though Apple might become to mobiles what Microsoft was to PCs: a friction-reducing monopoly.  However, Google and its Android hardware minions have thrown a spanner into that dream.  (And Nokia, for all its challenges, can’t be discounted.)  Having seen Android’s swift growth can you confidently state you know which smartphone will be the most popular in 18 months?  Accept that the mobile hardware and OS’s will continue to be fragmented; ensure all mobile strategies are device-agnostic.

• Pan-device development  Two credible efforts are underway at Alcatel-Lucent and Amdocs to support developers coping with fragmentation and difficult carrier billing/monetization.  Insist your in-house or agency partners stay up to date and push them to experiment with these platforms.  Find cost-effective tools to maximize your mobile development dollars and mobile marketing reach.

• M-Commerce advances While we’ve all been hypnotized by what analyst Tomi Ahonen calls the smartphone “bloodbath” this year, the carriers have been quietly pushing forward their M-commerce agenda.  Starting mid-2011, AT&T and Verizon will pilot “Mercury”, using radio frequency proximity to allow consumers to swipe a smartphone at an in-store reader to make a purchase.  Retailers may even be able to supply receipts and rewards directly.  Given the lack of love among retailers, Visa and Mastercard, retailers may be happy to give Mercury a chance.  Keep an eye on Mercury; carrier-based mobile proximity payments could be the hot M-commerce hand by 2012.

Watch these key mobile trends and ensure you are one of the companies Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker predicts will “win big” in mobile (not one of the “many” left to “wonder what just happened”).